This post is laughable. They just put a logarithmic graph and putting their own opinions with absolutely zero comparisons with any other country. Let’s take a simple example of USA. (Even though they cannot be compared directly because of high difference in population density and literacy). They didn’t have a lockdown. Their new cases were 163 on 9th March and increased to 33k on 9th April in just a span of 1 month. We know the figures for India very well. We know that the testing is less but I think it’s just a strategy by the governing bodies to reduce panic amidst the already going chaos. If we were to closely relate to any other country, it would be China because the population density matches with India and we know how China dealt with the virus. Although China is controversial as a whole.
Could you please tell then how to flatten the curve? I mean US have almost done the same as the post has described. And check how many deaths have happened as of now.
Absolutely. With the daily rising cases, I too think the lockdown is not working. People are the main culprit who is stepping out of their house.
I don’t know the credentials of this author, only that most routine journalists with low IQs and no expertise whatsoever and others whose work has never intersected with healthcare have suddenly become experts in the mainstream media. So here is an analysis, early to conclude, as the authors admit, but from as reliably an expert source as one can get in interpreting data: https://www.financialexpress.com/lifestyle/health/covid-19-growth-curve-sees-slight-but-noticeable-flattening/1926378/
Right conclusion but wrong basis. Yes we have avoided cases but the debate should compare deaths with deaths out of hunger due to lack of livelihood. Even after upi and direct benefit transfer if we are missing some portion of the population we can assume they shall die of hunger.
On this I agree with some of the comments Dr Aniruddha Malpani, this is a really badly written article. At least this article is not the medium to decide whether the lockdown is working or not
Well Dr Aniruddha Malpani
As per me Indian lock down in actuals has ensured mitigating spread of virus.
“If the lockdown had any effect, you would expect the slope of this line to flattenorbend toward the horizontal axis.Given the significant economic and human cost suffered due to it, the lockdown must,thus,be accounted for as a failure” -In the said aspect as why slope of line had not flatten or moved horizontally… I would say that the Testing capacity initially was very less in India which subsequently increased. In the interim period many moved and led to spread of virus.Later as Testing capacity increased having maximum capacity in a day the curve moved vertically but till then although lock down there accomplice & nearby also became among probables with a need to test for Covid.
Lockdown is one among best solution to keep spread of virus not to flourish.Besides it is increasing Testing capacity which is required.
Among people who are outdoors vide essentials too are probables for COVID which may make curve vertical.But appreciate there human stints
Had Lockdown not been as India made it early then adverse situation including economic & human cost would have been more intense/ severe in India.
Cool & Stay Cool:)
We live in times, where it is impossible to expect a story without a pre-defined narrative. Qz have their narrative and they will squeeze the story and “data” within that. Question is, what was and is purpose of lockdown ? To eradicate Covid. Not happening. To find a cure. No.
To flatten the curve and buy time. Yes. But why ? If the transmission rate R0, is reduced sufficiently enough, the medical infrastructure can cope with the demand and with greater medical attention, there could be less fatalities. Now, the question one should be asking is what would have been the projected cases and fatalities assuming an R0 of 4 ( as per scientists ) over last 21 days with unbridled movement ( close 8.2 lakhs cases as per ICMR ). Would it have overwhelmed the system ? For the record, 28 K deaths in US and counting ( 370 mio population ).
Lockdown is no magic bullet. But I dont see better alternative, only complaints.
Credibility of this author vs the current interview of the head of epidimeology (published yesterday )india it is easy to understand the govts logic ..
if i may not be wrong in saying for most of them obeying this was the first problem(hum kissi see kamm nahi) then the practical problem the labour which works on daily basis and earns on daily basis – had no choice but to feel frustrated this is a highly unorganised sector, nobody to take care of them or look after third in an already stressed economy tough measures had to be taken to contain – which is off course was the need of the hour or else we would have been in bad shape , we would have seen large number of cases , so all in all its 50% here and 50% there, post opening need to see how things work out as the entire nation is going to be out of streets ,almost 9 out of 10 working over time to keep jobs and get back to normalcy which isn’t going to be easy either.
I looked at the data presented in detail, and it shows the lockdown is ‘working’ in a ‘shock and awe’ contrast to the headline. The assertion in the 3rd last para – ‘appears India missed a golden opportunity during the lockdown to build up its medical and public health capacity’ is ridiculous given the size of the country. We are not talking of any city-state here that can revamp its barely-there medical capacity in 3 weeks.
Maybe its a case of something is better than nothing …
https://www.indiatoday.in › story
Web results
Delhi pizza delivery boy tests positive for coronavirus, 72 families quarantined …
How do you factor above into this argument Dr.saab?
Vijay Guttal my prediction is that all of us will need to be quarantined ?
This is a virus and it is going to infect all of us. It is not going to kill us though, or even make us ill!
Dr Aniruddha Malpani sir ji, I am also of the same opinion. Yes, some time down the line like regular flu we all get infected, but right now all are scrambling to come terms with this damn thing. What’s alternative to lockdown? Can we contain under free movement??? And if we extend this argument further do we need masks at all when eventually we ‘ll get infected????
Do we have a system of cross check author’s depth knowledge and understanding the topic so, we can agree on a same page and gain more trust from authors community. Dr Aniruddha Malpani
Check out this story: UK extends lockdown measures for at least 3 more weeks https://flip.it/vweN0H
From COVID-19: The Coronavirus Outbreak, a Flipboard magazine: https://flip.it/Ei6VG-
Dr Aniruddha Malpani what’s your take on this Sir?
This is heights of stupidity, and I do not expect you to believe it Dr Aniruddha Malpani.
Lets assume we have n number of cases, much higher than we tested positive, probably in many thousands, do you see people with severe respiratory illness at home?
Lockdown has not delivered the magic. With 1.3 billion population and with the current state of healthcare machinery topped up with the socio-economic and socio-political setup, all that lockdown was supposed to do was not to let corona spread run mock.
Sudden heavy impact load can produce strain in any system, and we see that in many countries.
Imagine the scenario if the case numbers in India would have reached 200k, leave aside 850k as suggested by ICMR study.
We worry about ventilators! Let me tell you, there would have been a shortage of oxygen cylinders.
With lockdown and isolation following are the benefits I see:
1) We know where the problem is more severe, and this helps in resource planning and effective utilization.
2) 50% of districts in India are untouched by corona, and this is around 370. We have listed hotspots in the impacted areas, and this will help in containing the spread and treating the cases. Lockdown is essential to achieve this.
3) Targeted testing in progress, and that is a good thing. Sure more testing needs to be done, but first, it should happen where it matters most.
4) The involved personnel knows where it will be a war-like situation to deliver healthcare services.
Data is not showing non-working lockdown, it is all speculative in this article, just another ‘what-if’. It is fine to raise all the concerns but let’s not call that data is showing it
This post is laughable. They just put a logarithmic graph and putting their own opinions with absolutely zero comparisons with any other country. Let’s take a simple example of USA. (Even though they cannot be compared directly because of high difference in population density and literacy). They didn’t have a lockdown. Their new cases were 163 on 9th March and increased to 33k on 9th April in just a span of 1 month. We know the figures for India very well. We know that the testing is less but I think it’s just a strategy by the governing bodies to reduce panic amidst the already going chaos. If we were to closely relate to any other country, it would be China because the population density matches with India and we know how China dealt with the virus. Although China is controversial as a whole.
Could you please tell then how to flatten the curve? I mean US have almost done the same as the post has described. And check how many deaths have happened as of now.
Absolutely. With the daily rising cases, I too think the lockdown is not working. People are the main culprit who is stepping out of their house.
I don’t know the credentials of this author, only that most routine journalists with low IQs and no expertise whatsoever and others whose work has never intersected with healthcare have suddenly become experts in the mainstream media. So here is an analysis, early to conclude, as the authors admit, but from as reliably an expert source as one can get in interpreting data: https://www.financialexpress.com/lifestyle/health/covid-19-growth-curve-sees-slight-but-noticeable-flattening/1926378/
Right conclusion but wrong basis. Yes we have avoided cases but the debate should compare deaths with deaths out of hunger due to lack of livelihood. Even after upi and direct benefit transfer if we are missing some portion of the population we can assume they shall die of hunger.
On this I agree with some of the comments Dr Aniruddha Malpani, this is a really badly written article. At least this article is not the medium to decide whether the lockdown is working or not
Well Dr Aniruddha Malpani
As per me Indian lock down in actuals has ensured mitigating spread of virus.
“If the lockdown had any effect, you would expect the slope of this line to flattenorbend toward the horizontal axis.Given the significant economic and human cost suffered due to it, the lockdown must,thus,be accounted for as a failure” -In the said aspect as why slope of line had not flatten or moved horizontally… I would say that the Testing capacity initially was very less in India which subsequently increased. In the interim period many moved and led to spread of virus.Later as Testing capacity increased having maximum capacity in a day the curve moved vertically but till then although lock down there accomplice & nearby also became among probables with a need to test for Covid.
Lockdown is one among best solution to keep spread of virus not to flourish.Besides it is increasing Testing capacity which is required.
Among people who are outdoors vide essentials too are probables for COVID which may make curve vertical.But appreciate there human stints
Had Lockdown not been as India made it early then adverse situation including economic & human cost would have been more intense/ severe in India.
Cool & Stay Cool:)
We live in times, where it is impossible to expect a story without a pre-defined narrative. Qz have their narrative and they will squeeze the story and “data” within that. Question is, what was and is purpose of lockdown ? To eradicate Covid. Not happening. To find a cure. No.
To flatten the curve and buy time. Yes. But why ? If the transmission rate R0, is reduced sufficiently enough, the medical infrastructure can cope with the demand and with greater medical attention, there could be less fatalities. Now, the question one should be asking is what would have been the projected cases and fatalities assuming an R0 of 4 ( as per scientists ) over last 21 days with unbridled movement ( close 8.2 lakhs cases as per ICMR ). Would it have overwhelmed the system ? For the record, 28 K deaths in US and counting ( 370 mio population ).
Lockdown is no magic bullet. But I dont see better alternative, only complaints.
Credibility of this author vs the current interview of the head of epidimeology (published yesterday )india it is easy to understand the govts logic ..
if i may not be wrong in saying for most of them obeying this was the first problem(hum kissi see kamm nahi) then the practical problem the labour which works on daily basis and earns on daily basis – had no choice but to feel frustrated this is a highly unorganised sector, nobody to take care of them or look after third in an already stressed economy tough measures had to be taken to contain – which is off course was the need of the hour or else we would have been in bad shape , we would have seen large number of cases , so all in all its 50% here and 50% there, post opening need to see how things work out as the entire nation is going to be out of streets ,almost 9 out of 10 working over time to keep jobs and get back to normalcy which isn’t going to be easy either.
I looked at the data presented in detail, and it shows the lockdown is ‘working’ in a ‘shock and awe’ contrast to the headline. The assertion in the 3rd last para – ‘appears India missed a golden opportunity during the lockdown to build up its medical and public health capacity’ is ridiculous given the size of the country. We are not talking of any city-state here that can revamp its barely-there medical capacity in 3 weeks.
Maybe its a case of something is better than nothing …
https://www.indiatoday.in › story
Web results
Delhi pizza delivery boy tests positive for coronavirus, 72 families quarantined …
How do you factor above into this argument Dr.saab?
Vijay Guttal my prediction is that all of us will need to be quarantined ?
This is a virus and it is going to infect all of us. It is not going to kill us though, or even make us ill!
Dr Aniruddha Malpani sir ji, I am also of the same opinion. Yes, some time down the line like regular flu we all get infected, but right now all are scrambling to come terms with this damn thing. What’s alternative to lockdown? Can we contain under free movement??? And if we extend this argument further do we need masks at all when eventually we ‘ll get infected????
Do we have a system of cross check author’s depth knowledge and understanding the topic so, we can agree on a same page and gain more trust from authors community. Dr Aniruddha Malpani
Check out this story: UK extends lockdown measures for at least 3 more weeks https://flip.it/vweN0H
From COVID-19: The Coronavirus Outbreak, a Flipboard magazine: https://flip.it/Ei6VG-
Dr Aniruddha Malpani what’s your take on this Sir?
This is heights of stupidity, and I do not expect you to believe it Dr Aniruddha Malpani.
Lets assume we have n number of cases, much higher than we tested positive, probably in many thousands, do you see people with severe respiratory illness at home?
check out this
https://twitter.com/ShamikaRavi/status/1250620454009626624?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet
Lockdown has not delivered the magic. With 1.3 billion population and with the current state of healthcare machinery topped up with the socio-economic and socio-political setup, all that lockdown was supposed to do was not to let corona spread run mock.
Sudden heavy impact load can produce strain in any system, and we see that in many countries.
Imagine the scenario if the case numbers in India would have reached 200k, leave aside 850k as suggested by ICMR study.
We worry about ventilators! Let me tell you, there would have been a shortage of oxygen cylinders.
With lockdown and isolation following are the benefits I see:
1) We know where the problem is more severe, and this helps in resource planning and effective utilization.
2) 50% of districts in India are untouched by corona, and this is around 370. We have listed hotspots in the impacted areas, and this will help in containing the spread and treating the cases. Lockdown is essential to achieve this.
3) Targeted testing in progress, and that is a good thing. Sure more testing needs to be done, but first, it should happen where it matters most.
4) The involved personnel knows where it will be a war-like situation to deliver healthcare services.
Data is not showing non-working lockdown, it is all speculative in this article, just another ‘what-if’. It is fine to raise all the concerns but let’s not call that data is showing it