Sadly, rational experts won’t get featured on the News!
Sadly, rational experts won’t get featured on the News!
Link ,
Spread the love
25 thoughts
India preemptive strike is much better than no lockdown….in near future we will know….
Very believable report. But just to remove any psychological fears, it would be prudent to complete the stipulated lockdown. This report clearly provides reasoning for not extending the lockdown…
Chetan Indap why? When you find yourself in a ditch, shouldn’t you first stop digging?
Contagious movie released in 2011 capture what going on world over. Normally pandemic curve for each region will be similar, unless Indian have emerged differently than other humans. https://youtu.be/4sYSyuuLk5g
Dr. Aniruddha Malpani, please forgive my ignorance since I am definitely not a Covid 19 expert but these numbers may not be the real count since we (India) are not testing enough given our population? I definitely agree that the panic mode is harming us more than the real pandemic!
There was a report I read on the BCG vaccine and its impact on our country India. Because of BCG vaccine large population is not affected by the virus even in older generations
EU doesn’t support the BCG vaccine
Dr Aniruddha Malpani If you had a school with two classrooms, one which you test and hence have some students failing, while the other has almost no testing, do all the students in the 2nd classroom pass and are smarter? We have tested 10 per million residents, Italy, 1000 per million. We don’t know what we don’t test.
Dr Aniruddha Malpani May be the trouble will pass with least amount of deaths in India without jostling the socioeconomic conditions. That is our prayer.
What is kind of “assumption” is mentioned by Devadasan ?
“””While simulations predict dire situations, we need to keep in mind that simulations are based on assumptions. In contrast, I have drawn conclusions based on the current path of the virus in India based on available data. Let us hope that I am right.”””
Case Fatality Rate are an unreliable source of data during pandemics. A global pandemic may or may not behave as other previous epidemics.It’s an outbreak.
Lets have some rational thoughts:
A model is only as good as its underlying data.
1. If we assume that India and it’s conditions are no different than other nations then there is a clear case to worry.
2. On the other hand, if we assume we are different, there is no point of comparing the curves, because underlying data has different demographic content. We simply have to either wait/act proactively to collect sufficient statistics before making such predictions. We are not there yet.
Extensive testing is only way to collect this local data to be sure. It’s not meant just to burden our health care resources but to be prepared on time if things turns out very bad and to understand if it’s different what is the underlying reasons.
May be we reacted on time and didn’t over-react. Global leaders are falling back on their earlier views in a matter of weeks time. It makes more sense to diagnose and treat a confirmed case than denying opportunity to millions. I believe any rational healthcare person would think the same.
Per article, numbers are not under reported as a month has passed since first local cases was reported. Will give two specific data points from Karnataka. (1) Paitient # 145 tested positive on 5th April after 13days of travel date. So depending on incubation period & date when other people got in touch with this person, would be at different stages of infection and may not be serious enough to report yet. (2) Secondary, Tertiary… infections like patient# 109 will cumulatively increase the time for a person to reach serious stage when infection reaches lungs and it is reported or even tested due to shortage of kits.
In short assumption that number are not under reported does look grossly incorrect.
Dr Aniruddha Malpani Axioms are prerequisite for logical reasoning. In the absence of axioms, its about our response and process we follow based on data.
The above link only states plain data. No easy inference can be drawn which makes one over-optimistic. Even though mortality rate are lower, the very absence of knowledge about this virus and behavior warrants appropriate measures, and that’s exactly policy makers are following, although on different time line. Further, this data only pertains to Italy and USA.
Another question is: is this data shown, compare daily mortality rates of a particular region before and after the onset of outbreak. or it is comparing the regional average with national average, because other regions are under strict lockdown. not clear.
Life is a life. Be it aged >60 or with pre-existing conditions. Countries with best health care systems didn’t wish to be in situation where they have to make difficult decisions.
There has been some arguments about herd immunity, in very initial stage. May be because of compelling economic forces. But even they have to fall in line for social distancing, lock down and testing.
Srinidhi Boray we can always self isolate!
Srinidhi Boray yes, at least he is humble enough to acknowledge uncertainty ?
Munish Kumar the fact that the predictions of the Doom and Gloom prophets have turned out to be false clearly shows that their models are flawed
Dr Aniruddha Malpani on what basis you will self isolate… what is the data.
Rajiv Burman, ACC because we need to test intelligently! Mass testing is a waste of resources and time
Srinidhi Boray what is your point? Can you please be clear?
Someone forgot to check the history of international viruses over the last 20 years and their lack of effect on the Indian populous
Dr Aniruddha Malpani If somebody told me that I will find the treasure between 5 to 10 ft, may as well go till 10 ft and not give up at 7 ft….
I would think that India acted fine. Infact there is a clear trend now India is moving to the danger zone. I have explained in this article:https://link.medium.com/VXFguD9dr5
The author mentions casually…
‘At this point, we should consider anybody with a fever and cough as a probable Covid-19 patient and ask them to be self quarantined. ‘
This is a very key assumption of this commentary.
With what we have seen in a religious gathering do u feel above is possible in India.
Would you or Author take ownership and accountability of an alt way to control the situation ?…some how i feel Western world is more disciplined in following rules compared to Developing countries specially India.
Hence agree with measures adopted by Govt.
India is doing splendid in managing a very tough situation with a population having a very diversified mindset.(related to being disciplined)
India preemptive strike is much better than no lockdown….in near future we will know….
Very believable report. But just to remove any psychological fears, it would be prudent to complete the stipulated lockdown. This report clearly provides reasoning for not extending the lockdown…
Chetan Indap why? When you find yourself in a ditch, shouldn’t you first stop digging?
Contagious movie released in 2011 capture what going on world over. Normally pandemic curve for each region will be similar, unless Indian have emerged differently than other humans.
https://youtu.be/4sYSyuuLk5g
Dr. Aniruddha Malpani, please forgive my ignorance since I am definitely not a Covid 19 expert but these numbers may not be the real count since we (India) are not testing enough given our population? I definitely agree that the panic mode is harming us more than the real pandemic!
There was a report I read on the BCG vaccine and its impact on our country India. Because of BCG vaccine large population is not affected by the virus even in older generations
EU doesn’t support the BCG vaccine
Dr Aniruddha Malpani If you had a school with two classrooms, one which you test and hence have some students failing, while the other has almost no testing, do all the students in the 2nd classroom pass and are smarter? We have tested 10 per million residents, Italy, 1000 per million. We don’t know what we don’t test.
Dr Aniruddha Malpani May be the trouble will pass with least amount of deaths in India without jostling the socioeconomic conditions. That is our prayer.
What is kind of “assumption” is mentioned by Devadasan ?
“””While simulations predict dire situations, we need to keep in mind that simulations are based on assumptions. In contrast, I have drawn conclusions based on the current path of the virus in India based on available data. Let us hope that I am right.”””
Case Fatality Rate are an unreliable source of data during pandemics. A global pandemic may or may not behave as other previous epidemics.It’s an outbreak.
Lets have some rational thoughts:
A model is only as good as its underlying data.
1. If we assume that India and it’s conditions are no different than other nations then there is a clear case to worry.
2. On the other hand, if we assume we are different, there is no point of comparing the curves, because underlying data has different demographic content. We simply have to either wait/act proactively to collect sufficient statistics before making such predictions. We are not there yet.
Extensive testing is only way to collect this local data to be sure. It’s not meant just to burden our health care resources but to be prepared on time if things turns out very bad and to understand if it’s different what is the underlying reasons.
May be we reacted on time and didn’t over-react. Global leaders are falling back on their earlier views in a matter of weeks time. It makes more sense to diagnose and treat a confirmed case than denying opportunity to millions. I believe any rational healthcare person would think the same.
Per article, numbers are not under reported as a month has passed since first local cases was reported. Will give two specific data points from Karnataka. (1) Paitient # 145 tested positive on 5th April after 13days of travel date. So depending on incubation period & date when other people got in touch with this person, would be at different stages of infection and may not be serious enough to report yet. (2) Secondary, Tertiary… infections like patient# 109 will cumulatively increase the time for a person to reach serious stage when infection reaches lungs and it is reported or even tested due to shortage of kits.
In short assumption that number are not under reported does look grossly incorrect.
Dr Aniruddha Malpani Axioms are prerequisite for logical reasoning. In the absence of axioms, its about our response and process we follow based on data.
The above link only states plain data. No easy inference can be drawn which makes one over-optimistic. Even though mortality rate are lower, the very absence of knowledge about this virus and behavior warrants appropriate measures, and that’s exactly policy makers are following, although on different time line. Further, this data only pertains to Italy and USA.
Another question is: is this data shown, compare daily mortality rates of a particular region before and after the onset of outbreak. or it is comparing the regional average with national average, because other regions are under strict lockdown. not clear.
Life is a life. Be it aged >60 or with pre-existing conditions. Countries with best health care systems didn’t wish to be in situation where they have to make difficult decisions.
There has been some arguments about herd immunity, in very initial stage. May be because of compelling economic forces. But even they have to fall in line for social distancing, lock down and testing.
Srinidhi Boray we can always self isolate!
Srinidhi Boray yes, at least he is humble enough to acknowledge uncertainty ?
Munish Kumar the fact that the predictions of the Doom and Gloom prophets have turned out to be false clearly shows that their models are flawed
Dr Aniruddha Malpani on what basis you will self isolate… what is the data.
Rajiv Burman, ACC because we need to test intelligently! Mass testing is a waste of resources and time
Srinidhi Boray what is your point? Can you please be clear?
Someone forgot to check the history of international viruses over the last 20 years and their lack of effect on the Indian populous
Dr Aniruddha Malpani If somebody told me that I will find the treasure between 5 to 10 ft, may as well go till 10 ft and not give up at 7 ft….
https://www.hindustantimes.com/analysis/can-india-be-an-outlier-in-the-spread-of-covid-19/story-OS2c161BQhD7Ne33x26h0L.html
In the same lines, this may be worth a read.
I would think that India acted fine. Infact there is a clear trend now India is moving to the danger zone. I have explained in this article:https://link.medium.com/VXFguD9dr5
The author mentions casually…
‘At this point, we should consider anybody with a fever and cough as a probable Covid-19 patient and ask them to be self quarantined. ‘
This is a very key assumption of this commentary.
With what we have seen in a religious gathering do u feel above is possible in India.
Would you or Author take ownership and accountability of an alt way to control the situation ?…some how i feel Western world is more disciplined in following rules compared to Developing countries specially India.
Hence agree with measures adopted by Govt.
India is doing splendid in managing a very tough situation with a population having a very diversified mindset.(related to being disciplined)
Sanjay Kar you are catastrophising! Watching too much TV will do that to you. https://swprs.org/a-swiss-doctor-on-covid-19/
Nipun Kapur Ph.D. Counting positive tests as ‘cases’ is misleading and meaningless. https://swprs.org/a-swiss-doctor-on-covid-19/