Conclusion: Building a Culture of Thinking Twice
Learn how writing decisions down, AI premortems, reference classes, and reviews help Indian founders and professionals improve judgment and avoid costly bias.
Honest advice on fertility, startups and your child's education
I'm Dr Aniruddha Malpani. For thirty years I have worked as an IVF doctor and an angel investor, and written about what I have learnt. Pick the path closest to what you are facing. Each one gathers my most useful posts in the order I would read them. If you have a question of your own, ask me in the chat, day or night.
IVF and fertility
If you are going through IVF
What to understand before you start, how to choose a protocol, why cycles fail, and how to tell when a clinic is not putting you first.
Read the IVF path →
Startups
If you are building a startup
How to think like a founder, build something people want, raise money, hire well and earn a reputation without a marketing budget.
Read the founder path →
Education
If you are paying for edtech
The Byju's Files: how India's most valuable startup sold fear to parents, who it hurt, and what to check before you sign up your child.
Read the investigation →
One useful letter, every MondayThe best new post, one classic from the archive, and a reader's question answered. Free, and short.
Get the letter
Chapter 7: Using AI to Think Better — A Practical Playbook
Learn a repeatable AI system to spot biases, test alternatives, keep a decision journal, and review predictions without giving up your judgment.
Chapter 6: Sorting Luck from Skill
Learn how to separate luck from skill in investing, startups, cricket, surgery, lotteries, and IVF using the practical “Can you lose on purpose?” test.
Chapter 5: More Is Different — Understanding Complex Systems
Learn how complex systems create unexpected effects, from demonetization to induced demand, and use AI to identify feedback loops and consequences.
Chapter 4: Situational Awareness — Context Changes Everything
Learn how hierarchy, social pressure, incentives, and informal rules shape decisions in Indian family businesses, hiring, healthcare, and other settings.
Chapter 3: The Expert Squeeze — When Crowds and Models Beat Gurus
Learn when to trust models, crowds, experts, or AI, and why aggregated forecasts often beat individual gurus in finance, medicine, cricket, and investing.
Chapter 2: Open to Options — Escaping Tunnel Vision
Learn how narrow framing and anchoring limit choices, plus tools to find alternatives, test risks, invite dissent, and use AI for better decisions.
Chapter 1: The Outside View — Stop Treating Every Problem as Unique
Learn how base rates, reference classes, and AI can challenge optimistic assumptions and improve predictions for startups, policy, parenting, and more.
Introduction: Why Smart Indians Make Dumb Decisions
Learn why smart Indians make costly decisions under uncertainty, social pressure, and information overload—and use structured thinking and AI to avoid mistakes.
Conclusion
Learn how to start career planning without perfect clarity: talk to one person, write your Workview, and create three AI-assisted Odyssey Plans.